Let’s start with qualifications. I am not a payments industry pundit, and whatever payments experience I’ve had, it’s always been more on the risk and data side. I’m also a bit out of touch because I’m focused on my company, TrueAccord.
I’m also not an Apple fanboy or hater. I own a great 2 year old Macbook Pro and a Nexus 5; I don’t wake up at 3am to buy the latest model but if it’s good, I’m going to get it.
Still, I want Apple Pay to fail. So much. Why, you ask? WHY?
(tough choice: Platoon or the Reddit “why” meme? ugh)
First, it’s been just a few weeks and already I hear VCs who previously didn’t care about payments, random entrepreneurs, and journalists talking about Apple Pay like it’s the third coming. The data! What they could do with it! I didn’t hear these people talk this way when previous installments of phone + NFC wallets were introduced, and for a good reason – they are not that interesting, and I think Apple Pay is not interesting in exactly the same way.
Second, the talk about Apple now disintermediating banks. Anyone who makes the jump from storing credit cards in a “wallet” to going after issuers or retail banks in one sentence should be awarded a gold medal in mind-athletics. These are completely different activities and mind sets. Most infuriating is the suggestion that disintermediating banks is a corollary to what Apple did with iTunes. You don’t just unbundle banks and sell services through a clunky iInterface. The regulatory and operational impacts are incredibly complicated and Apple, if it ever does anything in the space, will likely partner rather than reinvent. This will further demonstrate what Apple Pay is for me: putting lipstick on a pig.
To further this point, I don’t believe Apple has real payments chops. I didn’t believe that in 2011 and I don’t believe it now. Like Google Wallet, I think Apple will use Pay to do what it knows best; in its case, sell hardware. This isn’t a new sentiment, but it’s still true; I don’t believe the commotion around Apple Pay because I don’t think Apple believes it either. They’re not here to reinvent payments.
Finally, going back to my first point, I don’t think Apple Pay is solving a real problem. That’s the main reason that other wallet providers failed to gain traction. While I understand the idea of Nash Equilibriums and accept that a huge investment in marketing could buy a stake in the market, I’d be surprised (and disappointed, if you couldn’t tell) to discover that consumer behavior was just a marketing campaign away. I don’t believe that, though – I still don’t think Apple Pay solves a problem, I don’t think using it does any good to anyone other than Apple, and I’d rather all that energy put into fitting Apple Pay would be spent on something else.
And that is why I really want Apple Pay to fail.
 I guess that makes me a reverse hipster. I hated the idea before it was cool.